Daily Papers

Does continued scaling of large language models (LLMs) yield diminishing returns? Real-world value often stems from the length of task an agent can complete. We start this work by observing the simple but counterintuitive fact that marginal gains in single-step accuracy can compound into exponential improvements in the length of a task a model can successfully complete. Then, we argue that failures of LLMs when simple tasks are made longer arise from mistakes in execution, rather than an inability to reason. We propose isolating execution capability, by explicitly providing the knowledge and plan needed to solve a long-horizon task. We find that larger models can correctly execute significantly more turns even when small models have 100\% single-turn accuracy. We observe that the per-step accuracy of models degrades as the number of steps increases. This is not just due to long-context limitations -- curiously, we observe a self-conditioning effect -- models become more likely to make mistakes when the context contains their errors from prior turns. Self-conditioning does not reduce by just scaling the model size. In contrast, recent thinking models do not self-condition, and can also execute much longer tasks in a single turn. We conclude by benchmarking frontier thinking models on the length of task they can execute in a single turn. Overall, by focusing on the ability to execute, we hope to reconcile debates on how LLMs can solve complex reasoning problems yet fail at simple tasks when made longer, and highlight the massive benefits of scaling model size and sequential test-time compute for long-horizon tasks.

Pashto is absent from Whisper's pre-training corpus despite being one of CommonVoice's largest language collections, leaving off-the-shelf models unusable: all Whisper sizes output Arabic, Dari, or Urdu script on Pashto audio, achieving word error rates above 100%. We compare four fine-tuning strategies for whisper-base on CommonVoice Pashto v20: vanilla full fine-tuning, LoRA (rank 64), frozen-encoder (2/6 layers), and multistage Urdu-to-Pashto transfer. We extend vanilla fine-tuning to whisper-small and whisper-large-v3-turbo on CommonVoice Pashto v24 (113 hours). Vanilla fine-tuning achieves WER 21.22% on CV20, outperforming LoRA by 33.36 pp, frozen-encoder by 14.76 pp, and Urdu transfer by 44.56 pp. Frozen-encoder fine-tuning degrades performance on whisper-base (6 encoder layers): layer-function separation does not hold at this depth, and freezing removes a third of trainable capacity. Urdu-to-Pashto transfer fails due to an unverified intermediate checkpoint, phonological mismatch, and insufficient training. On CV24, whisper-small achieves WER 24.89% (2.24 pp over whisper-base at 3.3x parameters); whisper-large-v3-turbo achieves 23.37% (a further 1.52 pp). Diminishing returns indicate whisper-small is the practical optimum at 113 hours. Online augmentation provides 7.25 pp WER benefit over matched training. Error analysis identifies word-final suffix confusion (masculine -ay vs. feminine -a) and retroflex substitutions involving the Pashto-unique consonant /ts/ as dominant failure modes. Fine-tuned checkpoints and evaluation scripts are released on HuggingFace.

Large language model (LLM) scaling is hitting a wall. Widening models yields diminishing returns, and extending context length does not improve fundamental expressivity. In contrast, depth scaling offers theoretically superior expressivity, yet current Transformer architectures struggle to train reliably at extreme depths. We revisit the Post-LayerNorm (Post-LN) formulation, whose instability at scale caused its replacement by Pre-LN in modern LLMs. We show that the central failure mode of Post-LN arises from the ResNet-style residual pathway, which introduces gradient vanishing in deep networks. We present Keel, a Post-LN Transformer that replaces this residual path with a Highway-style connection. This modification preserves the gradient flow through the residual branch, preventing signal vanishing from the top layers to the bottom. Unlike prior methods, Keel enables stable training at extreme depths without requiring specialized initialization or complex optimization tricks. Keel trains robustly at depths exceeding 1000 layers and consistently improves perplexity and depth-scaling characteristics over Pre-LN. These findings indicate that Post-LN, when paired with a Highway-style connection, provides a simple and effective foundation for building deeply scalable LLMs, opening the possibility for future infinite-depth architectures.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has shown notable effectiveness in enhancing large language models (LLMs) reasoning performance, especially in mathematics tasks. However, such improvements often come with reduced outcome diversity, where the model concentrates probability mass on a narrow set of solutions. Motivated by diminishing-returns principles, we introduce a set level diversity objective defined over sampled trajectories using kernelized similarity. Our approach derives a leave-one-out marginal contribution for each sampled trajectory and integrates this objective as a plug-in advantage shaping term for policy optimization. We further investigate the contribution of a single trajectory to language model diversity within a distribution perturbation framework. This analysis theoretically confirms a monotonicity property, proving that rarer trajectories yield consistently higher marginal contributions to the global diversity. Extensive experiments across a range of model scales demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm, consistently outperforming strong baselines in both Pass@1 and Pass@K across various benchmarks.

Large language models (LLMs) are typically developed through large-scale pre-training followed by task-specific fine-tuning. Recent advances highlight the importance of an intermediate mid-training stage, where models undergo multiple annealing-style phases that refine data quality, adapt optimization schedules, and extend context length. This stage mitigates diminishing returns from noisy tokens, stabilizes convergence, and expands model capability in late training. Its effectiveness can be explained through gradient noise scale, the information bottleneck, and curriculum learning, which together promote generalization and abstraction. Despite widespread use in state-of-the-art systems, there has been no prior survey of mid-training as a unified paradigm. We introduce the first taxonomy of LLM mid-training spanning data distribution, learning-rate scheduling, and long-context extension. We distill practical insights, compile evaluation benchmarks, and report gains to enable structured comparisons across models. We also identify open challenges and propose avenues for future research and practice.

In this study, we investigate how language models develop preferences for idiomatic as compared to linguistically acceptable Swedish, both during pretraining and when adapting a model from English to Swedish. To do so, we train models on Swedish from scratch and by fine-tuning English-pretrained models, probing their preferences at various checkpoints using minimal pairs that differ in linguistic acceptability or idiomaticity. For linguistic acceptability, we adapt existing benchmarks into a minimal-pair format. To assess idiomaticity, we introduce two novel datasets: one contrasting conventionalized idioms with plausible variants, and another contrasting idiomatic Swedish with Translationese. Our findings suggest that idiomatic competence emerges more slowly than other linguistic abilities, including grammatical and lexical correctness. While longer training yields diminishing returns for most tasks, idiom-related performance continues to improve, particularly in the largest model tested (8B). However, instruction tuning on data machine-translated from English -- the common approach for languages with little or no native instruction data -- causes models to rapidly lose their preference for idiomatic language.

Model merging enables the combination of multiple specialized expert models into a single model capable of performing multiple tasks. However, the benefits of merging an increasing amount of specialized experts generally lead to diminishing returns and reduced overall performance gains. In this work, we empirically and theoretically analyze this limitation, proving that for Task Arithmetic-based methods, as more experts are merged, the common information dominates the task-specific information, leading to inevitable rank collapse. To mitigate this issue, we introduce Subspace Boosting, which operates on the singular value decomposed task vector space and maintains task vector ranks. Subspace Boosting raises merging efficacy for up to 20 experts by large margins of more than 10% when evaluated on both vision and language benchmarks. Moreover, we propose employing Higher-Order Generalized Singular Value Decomposition to quantify task similarity, offering a new interpretable perspective on model merging. Code and models are available at https://github.com/ronskoro/Subspace-Boosting.

Modern language model (LM) training has been divided into multiple stages, making it difficult for downstream developers to evaluate the impact of design choices made at each stage. We present EvoLM, a model suite that enables systematic and transparent analysis of LMs' training dynamics across pre-training, continued pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning. By training over 100 LMs with 1B and 4B parameters from scratch, we rigorously evaluate both upstream (language modeling) and downstream (problem-solving) reasoning capabilities, including considerations of both in-domain and out-of-domain generalization. Key insights highlight the diminishing returns from excessive pre-training and post-training, the importance and practices of mitigating forgetting during domain-specific continued pre-training, the crucial role of continued pre-training in bridging pre-training and post-training phases, and various intricate trade-offs when configuring supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning. To facilitate open research and reproducibility, we release all pre-trained and post-trained models, training datasets for all stages, and our entire training and evaluation pipeline.

The GPT-4 technical report suggests that downstream performance can be predicted from pre-training signals, but offers little methodological detail on how to quantify this. This work address this gap by modeling knowledge retention, the capacity of a pre-trained language model to memorize factual information from its corpus, and introduce a principled method to estimate it prior to training. We propose Size-dependent Mutual Information (SMI), an information-theoretic predictor that integrates knowledge frequency, knowledge specificity, and model size to forecast closed-book question answering (QA) accuracy. SMI is validated through large-scale document retrieval over the disclosed pre-training corpora of 21 public and 3 custom models, combined with a robust multi-template QA evaluation. Experiments show that SMI significantly outperforms repetition-based baselines and achieves R^2 > 0.7 in predicting QA accuracy for models above 1B parameters, without additional training. The analysis further reveals diminishing returns from scaling data and model size and provides evidence for an intrinsic upper bound on knowledge retention achievable by pre-training alone, motivating retrieval and other augmentation strategies.

The remarkable capabilities of Large Language Model (LLM)-driven agents have enabled sophisticated systems to tackle complex, multi-step tasks, but their escalating costs threaten scalability and accessibility. This work presents the first systematic study of the efficiency-effectiveness trade-off in modern agent systems, addressing the critical need for cost-effective designs without sacrificing performance. We investigate three key questions: (1) How much complexity do agentic tasks inherently require? (2) When do additional modules yield diminishing returns? (3) How much efficiency can be gained through the design of efficient agent frameworks? Through an empirical analysis on the GAIA benchmark, we evaluate the impact of LLM backbone selection, agent framework designs, and test-time scaling strategies. Using the cost-of-pass metric, we quantify the efficiency-performance trade-off across these dimensions. Our findings inform the development of Efficient Agents , a novel agent framework that has an optimal complexity to task requirements. Efficient Agents retains 96.7% of the performance of OWL, one leading open-source agent framework, while reducing operational costs from 0.398 to 0.228, resulting in a 28.4% improvement in cost-of-pass. Our work provides actionable insights for designing efficient, high-performing agent systems, advancing the accessibility and sustainability of AI-driven solutions.

As centralized AI hits compute ceilings and diminishing returns from ever-larger training runs, meeting demand requires an inference layer that scales horizontally in both capacity and capability. We present Fortytwo, a novel protocol that leverages swarm intelligence principles and distributed pairwise ranking consensus to achieve superior performance in AI inference. Our approach reimagines collaboration among AI nodes using swarm inference: a peer-ranked, reputation-weighted consensus across heterogeneous models that surfaces the highest-quality responses. Using pairwise ranking with a custom Bradley-Terry-style aggregation model, we demonstrate that swarm inference substantially outperforms majority voting, achieving 85.90% on GPQA Diamond versus 68.69% for majority voting with the same model set - an improvement of +17.21 percentage points (approximately +25.1% relative). The protocol incorporates on-chain reputation so node influence adapts to demonstrated accuracy over time, yielding a meritocratic consensus that filters low-quality or malicious participants. To resist Sybil attacks, Fortytwo employs proof-of-capability in its consensus: nodes must successfully complete calibration/test requests and stake reputation to enter ranking rounds, making multi-identity attacks economically unattractive while preserving openness. Across six challenging benchmarks, including GPQA Diamond, LiveCodeBench, and AIME, our evaluation indicates higher accuracy and strong resilience to adversarial and noisy free-form prompting (e.g., prompt-injection degradation of only 0.12% versus 6.20% for a monolithic single-model baseline), while retaining practical deployability. Together, these results establish a foundation for decentralized AI systems - democratizing access to high-quality inference through collective intelligence without sacrificing reliability or security.

Navigation foundation models trained on massive webscale data enable agents to generalize across diverse environments and embodiments. However, these models trained solely on offline data, often lack the capacity to reason about the consequences of their actions or adapt through counterfactual understanding. They thus face significant limitations in the real-world urban navigation where interactive and safe behaviors, such as avoiding obstacles and moving pedestrians, are critical. To tackle these challenges, we introduce the Seeing-to-Experiencing framework to scale the capability of navigation foundation models with reinforcement learning. S2E combines the strengths of pre-training on videos and post-training through RL. It maintains the generalizability acquired from large-scale real-world videos while enhancing its interactivity through RL in simulation environments. Specifically, we introduce two innovations: an Anchor-Guided Distribution Matching strategy, which stabilizes learning and models diverse motion patterns through anchor-based supervision; and a Residual-Attention Module, which obtains reactive behaviors from simulation environments without erasing the model's pretrained knowledge. Moreover, we establish a comprehensive end-to-end evaluation benchmark, NavBench-GS, built on photorealistic 3DGS reconstructions of real-world scenes that incorporate physical interactions. It can systematically assess the generalizability and safety of navigation foundation models. Extensive experiments show that S2E mitigates the diminishing returns often seen when scaling with offline data alone. We perform a thorough analysis of the benefits of Reinforcement Learning compared to Supervised Fine-Tuning in the context of post-training for robot learning. Our findings emphasize the crucial role of integrating interactive online experiences to effectively scale foundation models in Robotics.

Monolithic serving with chunked prefill improves GPU utilization by batching prefill and decode together, but suffers from fine-grained phase interference. Engine-level prefill-decode (PD) disaggregation avoids interference but incurs higher hardware and coordination overhead. Prior intra-GPU disaggregation approaches multiplex prefill and decode within a single GPU, using SLO-based tuning guided by heuristics from offline profiling or reactive feedback loops. However, these methods respond reactively to performance issues rather than anticipating them, limiting adaptability under dynamic workloads. We ask: can we achieve proactive intra-GPU disaggregation that adapts effectively to dynamic workloads? The key challenge lies in managing the conflicting resource demands of prefill and decode under varying conditions. We first show that GPU resources exhibit diminishing returns -- beyond a saturation point, more allocation yields minimal latency benefit. Second, we observe that memory bandwidth contention becomes a critical bottleneck. These insights motivate a design that dynamically partitions GPU resources across prefill and decode phases, while jointly considering compute capacity, memory footprint, and bandwidth contention. Evaluated on diverse LLMs and workloads, our system Nexus achieves up to 2.2x higher throughput, 20x lower TTFT, and 2.5x lower TBT than vLLM; outperforms SGLang by up to 2x; and matches or exceeds disaggregated vLLM.

With the advent of Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF), neural networks can now render novel views of a 3D scene with quality that fools the human eye. Yet, generating these images is very computationally intensive, limiting their applicability in practical scenarios. In this paper, we propose a technique based on spatial decomposition capable of mitigating this issue. Our key observation is that there are diminishing returns in employing larger (deeper and/or wider) networks. Hence, we propose to spatially decompose a scene and dedicate smaller networks for each decomposed part. When working together, these networks can render the whole scene. This allows us near-constant inference time regardless of the number of decomposed parts. Moreover, we show that a Voronoi spatial decomposition is preferable for this purpose, as it is provably compatible with the Painter's Algorithm for efficient and GPU-friendly rendering. Our experiments show that for real-world scenes, our method provides up to 3x more efficient inference than NeRF (with the same rendering quality), or an improvement of up to 1.0~dB in PSNR (for the same inference cost).

Humans naturally adapt to diverse environments by learning underlying rules across worlds with different dynamics, observations, and reward structures. In contrast, existing agents typically demonstrate improvements via self-evolving within a single domain, implicitly assuming a fixed environment distribution. Cross-environment learning has remained largely unmeasured: there is no standard collection of controllable, heterogeneous environments, nor a unified way to represent how agents learn. We address these gaps in two steps. First, we propose AutoEnv, an automated framework that treats environments as factorizable distributions over transitions, observations, and rewards, enabling low-cost (4.12 USD on average) generation of heterogeneous worlds. Using AutoEnv, we construct AutoEnv-36, a dataset of 36 environments with 358 validated levels, on which seven language models achieve 12-49% normalized reward, demonstrating the challenge of AutoEnv-36. Second, we formalize agent learning as a component-centric process driven by three stages of Selection, Optimization, and Evaluation applied to an improvable agent component. Using this formulation, we design eight learning methods and evaluate them on AutoEnv-36. Empirically, the gain of any single learning method quickly decrease as the number of environments increases, revealing that fixed learning methods do not scale across heterogeneous environments. Environment-adaptive selection of learning methods substantially improves performance but exhibits diminishing returns as the method space expands. These results highlight both the necessity and the current limitations of agent learning for scalable cross-environment generalization, and position AutoEnv and AutoEnv-36 as a testbed for studying cross-environment agent learning. The code is avaiable at https://github.com/FoundationAgents/AutoEnv.

Rerankers, typically cross-encoders, are often used to re-score the documents retrieved by cheaper initial IR systems. This is because, though expensive, rerankers are assumed to be more effective. We challenge this assumption by measuring reranker performance for full retrieval, not just re-scoring first-stage retrieval. Our experiments reveal a surprising trend: the best existing rerankers provide diminishing returns when scoring progressively more documents and actually degrade quality beyond a certain limit. In fact, in this setting, rerankers can frequently assign high scores to documents with no lexical or semantic overlap with the query. We hope that our findings will spur future research to improve reranking.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Conventional evaluation methods for multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) lack interpretability and are often insufficient to fully disclose significant capability gaps across models. To address this, we introduce AuditDM, an automated framework that actively discovers and rectifies MLLM failure modes by auditing their divergence. AuditDM fine-tunes an MLLM as an auditor via reinforcement learning to generate challenging questions and counterfactual images that maximize disagreement among target models. Once trained, the auditor uncovers diverse, interpretable exemplars that reveal model weaknesses and serve as annotation-free data for rectification. When applied to SoTA models like Gemma-3 and PaliGemma-2, AuditDM discovers more than 20 distinct failure types. Fine-tuning on these discoveries consistently improves all models across 16 benchmarks, and enables a 3B model to surpass its 28B counterpart. Our results suggest that as data scaling hits diminishing returns, targeted model auditing offers an effective path to model diagnosis and improvement.

While recent text-to-video (T2V) diffusion models have achieved impressive quality and prompt alignment, they often produce low-diversity outputs when sampling multiple videos from a single text prompt. We tackle this challenge by formulating it as a set-level policy optimization problem, with the goal of training a policy that can cover the diverse range of plausible outcomes for a given prompt. To address this, we introduce DPP-GRPO, a novel framework for diverse video generation that combines Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) and Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) theories to enforce explicit reward on diverse generations. Our objective turns diversity into an explicit signal by imposing diminishing returns on redundant samples (via DPP) while supplies groupwise feedback over candidate sets (via GRPO). Our framework is plug-and-play and model-agnostic, and encourages diverse generations across visual appearance, camera motions, and scene structure without sacrificing prompt fidelity or perceptual quality. We implement our method on WAN and CogVideoX, and show that our method consistently improves video diversity on state-of-the-art benchmarks such as VBench, VideoScore, and human preference studies. Moreover, we release our code and a new benchmark dataset of 30,000 diverse prompts to support future research.

We introduce CheeseBench, a benchmark that evaluates large language models (LLMs) on nine classical behavioral neuroscience paradigms (Morris water maze, Barnes maze, T-maze, radial arm maze, star maze, operant chamber, shuttle box, conditioned place preference, and delayed non-match to sample), spanning six cognitive dimensions. Each task is grounded in peer-reviewed rodent protocols with approximate animal baselines. The agent receives a unified system prompt with no task-specific instructions and must discover goals purely from ASCII text observations and reward signals, much like a rodent placed into an unfamiliar apparatus. We evaluate six open-weight LLMs (3B to 72B parameters) on text-based ASCII renderings and compare against both a random baseline and a graph-based reinforcement learning agent. Our best model (Qwen2.5-VL-7B) reaches 52.6% average success on ASCII input, compared to 32.1% for random agents and 78.9% for approximate rodent baselines. We find that (1) scaling beyond 7B yields diminishing returns, (2) longer context history degrades performance, (3) chain-of-thought prompting hurts rather than helps, and (4) a vision-language architecture provides an advantage at 7B but hurts at 32B. Because the same model's performance ranges from 20% to 57% depending on interface parameters alone, these results characterize the agent-plus-interface system, not the model in isolation. Under this unified zero-shot ASCII protocol, current open-weight LLM agents remain well below approximate rodent reference values, particularly on tasks requiring spatial navigation and within-trial state tracking.

Scaling model size and training data has led to great advances in the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, the diminishing returns of this approach necessitate alternative methods to improve model capabilities, particularly in tasks requiring advanced reasoning. Large reasoning models, which leverage long chain-of-thoughts, bring unprecedented breakthroughs in problem-solving capabilities but at a substantial deployment cost associated to longer generations. Reducing inference costs is crucial for the economic feasibility, user experience, and environmental sustainability of these models. In this work, we propose to train large reasoning models to reason efficiently. More precisely, we use reinforcement learning (RL) to train reasoning models to dynamically allocate inference-time compute based on task complexity. Our method incentivizes models to minimize unnecessary computational overhead while maintaining accuracy, thereby achieving substantial efficiency gains. It enables the derivation of a family of reasoning models with varying efficiency levels, controlled via a single hyperparameter. Experiments on two open-weight large reasoning models demonstrate significant reductions in inference cost while preserving most of the accuracy.

Large language models (LLMs) struggle with multi-step reasoning, where inference-time scaling has emerged as a promising strategy for performance improvement. Verifier-guided search outperforms repeated sampling when sample size is limited by selecting and prioritizing valid reasoning paths. However, we identify a critical limitation: scaling flaws, prevalent across different models (Mistral 7B and DeepSeekMath 7B), benchmarks (GSM8K and MATH), and verifiers (outcome value models and process reward models). As sample size increases, verifier-guided search exhibits diminishing advantages and eventually underperforms repeated sampling. Our analysis attributes this to verifier failures, where imperfect verifiers misrank candidates and erroneously prune all valid paths. These issues are further exacerbated in challenging and out-of-distribution problems, restricting search effectiveness. To mitigate verifier failures, we explore reducing reliance on verifiers and conduct preliminary investigations using two simple methods. Our findings reveal fundamental limitations in verifier-guided search and suggest future directions.

Building machine translation (MT) systems for low-resource languages is notably difficult due to the scarcity of high-quality data. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have improved MT system performance, adapting them to lesser-represented languages remains challenging. In-context learning (ICL) may offer novel ways to adapt LLMs for low-resource MT by conditioning models on demonstration at inference time. In this study, we explore scaling low-resource machine translation ICL beyond the few-shot setting to thousands of examples with long-context models. We scale in-context token budget to 1M tokens and compare three types of training corpora used as in-context supervision: monolingual unsupervised data, instruction-style data, and parallel data (English--target and Indonesian--target). Our experiments on Javanese and Sundanese show that gains from additional context saturate quickly and can degrade near the maximum context window, with scaling behavior strongly dependent on corpus type. Notably, some forms of monolingual supervision can be competitive with parallel data, despite the latter offering additional supervision. Overall, our results characterize the effective limits and corpus-type sensitivity of long-context ICL for low-resource MT, highlighting that larger context windows do not necessarily yield proportional quality gains.

Audio-language pretraining holds promise for general-purpose audio understanding, yet remains underexplored compared to its vision counterpart. While vision-language models like CLIP serve as widely adopted foundations, existing audio-language models primarily excel at retrieval tasks with limited adoption as general-purpose encoders. We identify three key barriers: limited large-scale audio-text corpora, insufficient caption diversity, and lack of systematic exploration and evaluation. To this end, we introduce CaptionStew, a 10.7M caption dataset aggregating diverse open-source audio-text corpora across multiple domains and captioning styles. Using this resource, we conduct the first comprehensive evaluation comparing contrastive and captioning objectives for audio representation learning across speech, music, and environmental sound tasks. Our results demonstrate that audio-language pretraining yields competitive, transferable representations. Through systematic data-scaling experiments, we reveal complementary objective strengths: contrastive learning achieves superior data efficiency at smaller scales, while captioning demonstrates better scalability on language-involved audio understanding tasks. We also find that common supervised initialization practices provide diminishing returns at scale, challenging current approaches. These findings establish audio-language pretraining as a viable pathway toward general-purpose audio representations, guiding future research. To accelerate progress, we release data preparation recipes, training protocols, and pretrained models, paving the way toward universal audio understanding.

Allocating more computation during inference time (test-time scaling) improves language model performance, especially for reasoning tasks. However, popular methods like Best-of-N sampling often show diminishing returns as N increases. To address this inefficiency, we introduce a general test-time calibration framework that adaptively modifies the model toward high-reward reasoning paths, with theoretical guarantees of improving the lower bound of expected reward under finite sampling, all without large language model (LLM) retraining. Within this framework, we propose CarBoN (Calibrated Best-of-N), a two-phase method that first explores the solution space and then learns a calibration of the logits via an input-specific temperature T and additive shift vector delta, guiding generation toward more reliable reasoning. Experiments on MATH-500 and AIME-2024 show that CarBoN improves efficiency, with up to 4times fewer rollouts to reach the same accuracy, while often achieving higher accuracy under fixed budgets. We also analyze the complementary roles of T and delta in balancing output diversity and correctness, and demonstrate that the framework also generalizes to step-level sampling strategies such as beam search. For more information, please refer to our project page at huggingface.co/spaces/TrustSafeAI/Test-Time-Calibration.

Large-language-model (LLM)-based AI agents have recently showcased impressive versatility by employing dynamic reasoning, an adaptive, multi-step process that coordinates with external tools. This shift from static, single-turn inference to agentic, multi-turn workflows broadens task generalization and behavioral flexibility, but it also introduces serious concerns about system-level cost, efficiency, and sustainability. This paper presents the first comprehensive system-level analysis of AI agents, quantifying their resource usage, latency behavior, energy consumption, and datacenter-wide power consumption demands across diverse agent designs and test-time scaling strategies. We further characterize how AI agent design choices, such as few-shot prompting, reflection depth, and parallel reasoning, impact accuracy-cost tradeoffs. Our findings reveal that while agents improve accuracy with increased compute, they suffer from rapidly diminishing returns, widening latency variance, and unsustainable infrastructure costs. Through detailed evaluation of representative agents, we highlight the profound computational demands introduced by AI agent workflows, uncovering a looming sustainability crisis. These results call for a paradigm shift in agent design toward compute-efficient reasoning, balancing performance with deployability under real-world constraints.

Modern LLMs are increasingly deep, and depth correlates with performance, albeit with diminishing returns. However, do these models use their depth efficiently? Do they compose more features to create higher-order computations that are impossible in shallow models, or do they merely spread the same kinds of computation out over more layers? To address these questions, we analyze the residual stream of the Llama 3.1 and Qwen 3 family of models. We find: First, comparing the output of the sublayers to the residual stream reveals that layers in the second half contribute much less than those in the first half, with a clear phase transition between the two halves. Second, skipping layers in the second half has a much smaller effect on future computations and output predictions. Third, for multihop tasks, we are unable to find evidence that models are using increased depth to compose subresults in examples involving many hops. Fourth, we seek to directly address whether deeper models are using their additional layers to perform new kinds of computation. To do this, we train linear maps from the residual stream of a shallow model to a deeper one. We find that layers with the same relative depth map best to each other, suggesting that the larger model simply spreads the same computations out over its many layers. All this evidence suggests that deeper models are not using their depth to learn new kinds of computation, but only using the greater depth to perform more fine-grained adjustments to the residual. This may help explain why increasing scale leads to diminishing returns for stacked Transformer architectures.

Expressive human pose and shape estimation (EHPS) unifies body, hands, and face motion capture with numerous applications. Despite encouraging progress, current state-of-the-art methods focus on training innovative architectural designs on confined datasets. In this work, we investigate the impact of scaling up EHPS towards a family of generalist foundation models. 1) For data scaling, we perform a systematic investigation on 40 EHPS datasets, encompassing a wide range of scenarios that a model trained on any single dataset cannot handle. More importantly, capitalizing on insights obtained from the extensive benchmarking process, we optimize our training scheme and select datasets that lead to a significant leap in EHPS capabilities. Ultimately, we achieve diminishing returns at 10M training instances from diverse data sources. 2) For model scaling, we take advantage of vision transformers (up to ViT-Huge as the backbone) to study the scaling law of model sizes in EHPS. To exclude the influence of algorithmic design, we base our experiments on two minimalist architectures: SMPLer-X, which consists of an intermediate step for hand and face localization, and SMPLest-X, an even simpler version that reduces the network to its bare essentials and highlights significant advances in the capture of articulated hands. With big data and the large model, the foundation models exhibit strong performance across diverse test benchmarks and excellent transferability to even unseen environments. Moreover, our finetuning strategy turns the generalist into specialist models, allowing them to achieve further performance boosts. Notably, our foundation models consistently deliver state-of-the-art results on seven benchmarks such as AGORA, UBody, EgoBody, and our proposed SynHand dataset for comprehensive hand evaluation. (Code is available at: https://github.com/wqyin/SMPLest-X).

In recent years, vision-language models have made significant strides, excelling in tasks like optical character recognition and geometric problem-solving. However, several critical issues remain: 1) Proprietary models often lack transparency about their architectures, while open-source models need more detailed ablations of their training strategies. 2) Pre-training data in open-source works is under-explored, with datasets added empirically, making the process cumbersome. 3) Fine-tuning often focuses on adding datasets, leading to diminishing returns. To address these issues, we propose the following contributions: 1) We trained a robust baseline model using the latest advancements in vision-language models, introducing effective improvements and conducting comprehensive ablation and validation for each technique. 2) Inspired by recent work on large language models, we filtered pre-training data using perplexity, selecting the lowest perplexity data for training. This approach allowed us to train on a curated 1M dataset, achieving competitive performance. 3) During visual instruction tuning, we used model soup on different datasets when adding more datasets yielded marginal improvements. These innovations resulted in a 9B parameter model that performs competitively with state-of-the-art models. Our strategies are efficient and lightweight, making them easily adoptable by the community.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable performance in recent years but are fundamentally limited by the underlying training data. To improve models beyond the training data, recent works have explored how LLMs can be used to generate synthetic data for autonomous self-improvement. However, successive steps of self-improvement can reach a point of diminishing returns. In this work, we propose a complementary approach towards self-improvement where finetuning is applied to a multiagent society of language models. A group of language models, all starting from the same base model, are independently specialized by updating each one using data generated through multiagent interactions among the models. By training each model on independent sets of data, we illustrate how this approach enables specialization across models and diversification over the set of models. As a result, our overall system is able to preserve diverse reasoning chains and autonomously improve over many more rounds of fine-tuning than single-agent self-improvement methods. We quantitatively illustrate the efficacy of the approach across a wide suite of reasoning tasks.

Test-time compute scaling has emerged as a powerful paradigm for enhancing mathematical reasoning in large language models (LLMs) by allocating additional computational resources during inference. However, current methods employ uniform resource distribution across all reasoning sub-problems, creating fundamental bottlenecks where challenging sub-problems receive insufficient attention while routine operations consume disproportionate resources. This uniform allocation creates performance bottlenecks where additional computational resources yield diminishing returns. Inspired by dual-process theory, we propose SCALE (Selective Resource Allocation), a framework that selectively allocates computational resources based on sub-problem difficulty. SCALE operates through four stages: (1) problem decomposition into sequential reasoning sub-problems, (2) difficulty assessment of each sub-problem to distinguish between routine operations and computationally challenging sub-problems, (3) selective processing mode assignment between System 1 for simple sub-problems and System 2 for complex ones, and (4) sequential execution with context propagation. By concentrating resources on challenging sub-problems while processing routine operations efficiently, SCALE achieves substantial performance improvements with superior resource utilization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SCALE significantly outperforms uniform scaling baselines, achieving accuracy improvements of up to 13.75 percentage points (57.50% to 71.25% on AIME25) while reducing computational costs by 33%-53%, representing a major advance in test-time scaling that addresses fundamental limitations of current approaches.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling methods like self-consistency with majority voting. However, this approach often leads to diminishing returns in accuracy and high computational overhead. To address these challenges, we introduce Deep Think with Confidence (DeepConf), a simple yet powerful method that enhances both reasoning efficiency and performance at test time. DeepConf leverages model-internal confidence signals to dynamically filter out low-quality reasoning traces during or after generation. It requires no additional model training or hyperparameter tuning and can be seamlessly integrated into existing serving frameworks. We evaluate DeepConf across a variety of reasoning tasks and the latest open-source models, including Qwen 3 and GPT-OSS series. Notably, on challenging benchmarks such as AIME 2025, DeepConf@512 achieves up to 99.9% accuracy and reduces generated tokens by up to 84.7% compared to full parallel thinking.

High-quality supervised fine-tuning (SFT) data are crucial for eliciting strong capabilities from pretrained large language models (LLMs). Typically, instructions are paired with multiple responses sampled from other LLMs, which are often out of the distribution of the target model to be fine-tuned. This, at scale, can lead to diminishing returns and even hurt the models' performance and robustness. We propose **GRAPE**, a novel SFT framework that accounts for the unique characteristics of the target model. For each instruction, it gathers responses from various LLMs and selects the one with the highest probability measured by the target model, indicating that it aligns most closely with the target model's pretrained distribution; it then proceeds with standard SFT training. We first evaluate GRAPE with a controlled experiment, where we sample various solutions for each question in UltraInteract from multiple models and fine-tune commonly used LMs like LLaMA3.1-8B, Mistral-7B, and Qwen2.5-7B on GRAPE-selected data. GRAPE significantly outperforms strong baselines, including distilling from the strongest model with an absolute gain of up to 13.8%, averaged across benchmarks, and training on 3x more data with a maximum performance improvement of 17.3%. GRAPE's strong performance generalizes to realistic settings. We experiment with the post-training data used for Tulu3 and Olmo-2. GRAPE outperforms strong baselines trained on 4.5 times more data by 6.1% and a state-of-the-art data selection approach by 3% on average performance. Remarkably, using 1/3 of the data and half the number of epochs, GRAPE enables LLaMA3.1-8B to surpass the performance of Tulu3-SFT by 3.5%.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) empowers large language models (LLMs) to utilize external knowledge sources. The increasing capacity of LLMs to process longer input sequences opens up avenues for providing more retrieved information, to potentially enhance the quality of generated outputs. It is plausible to assume that a larger retrieval set would contain more relevant information (higher recall), that might result in improved performance. However, our empirical findings demonstrate that for many long-context LLMs, the quality of generated output initially improves first, but then subsequently declines as the number of retrieved passages increases. This paper investigates this phenomenon, identifying the detrimental impact of retrieved "hard negatives" as a key contributor. To mitigate this and enhance the robustness of long-context LLM-based RAG, we propose both training-free and training-based approaches. We first showcase the effectiveness of retrieval reordering as a simple yet powerful training-free optimization. Furthermore, we explore training-based methods, specifically RAG-specific implicit LLM fine-tuning and RAG-oriented fine-tuning with intermediate reasoning, demonstrating their capacity for substantial performance gains. Finally, we conduct a systematic analysis of design choices for these training-based methods, including data distribution, retriever selection, and training context length.

Conditional language models are predominantly trained with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), giving probability mass to sparsely observed target sequences. While MLE trained models assign high probability to plausible sequences given the context, the model probabilities often do not accurately rank-order generated sequences by quality. This has been empirically observed in beam search decoding as output quality degrading with large beam sizes, and decoding strategies benefiting from heuristics such as length normalization and repetition-blocking. In this work, we introduce sequence likelihood calibration (SLiC) where the likelihood of model generated sequences are calibrated to better align with reference sequences in the model's latent space. With SLiC, decoding heuristics become unnecessary and decoding candidates' quality significantly improves regardless of the decoding method. Furthermore, SLiC shows no sign of diminishing returns with model scale, and presents alternative ways to improve quality with limited training and inference budgets. With SLiC, we exceed or match SOTA results on a wide range of generation tasks spanning abstractive summarization, question generation, abstractive question answering and data-to-text generation, even with modest-sized models.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly used for open-ended idea generation, driven by the expectation that collective interaction will broaden the exploration diversity. However, when and why such collaboration truly expands the solution space remains unclear. We present a systematic empirical study of diversity in MAS-based ideation across three bottom-up levels: model intelligence, agent cognition, and system dynamics. At the model level, we identify a compute efficiency paradox, where stronger, highly aligned models yield diminishing marginal diversity despite higher per-sample quality. At the cognition level, authority-driven dynamics suppress semantic diversity compared to junior-dominated groups. At the system level, group-size scaling yields diminishing returns and dense communication topologies accelerate premature convergence. We characterize these outcomes as collective failures emerging from structural coupling, a process where interaction inadvertently contracts agent exploration and triggers diversity collapse. Our analysis shows that this collapse arises primarily from the interaction structure rather than inherent model insufficiency, highlighting the importance of preserving independence and disagreement when designing MAS for creative tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/Xtra-Computing/MAS_Diversity.

Recent advances in large language model (LLM) pretraining have shown that simply scaling data quantity eventually leads to diminishing returns, hitting a data wall. In response, the use of synthetic data for pretraining has emerged as a promising paradigm for pushing the frontier of performance. Despite this, the factors affecting synthetic data quality remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce BeyondWeb, a synthetic data generation framework that produces high-quality synthetic data for pretraining. BeyondWeb significantly extends the capabilities of traditional web-scale datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art synthetic pretraining datasets such as Cosmopedia and Nemotron-CC's high-quality synthetic subset (Nemotron-Synth) by up to 5.1 percentage points (pp) and 2.6pp, respectively, when averaged across a suite of 14 benchmark evaluations. It delivers up to 7.7x faster training than open web data and 2.7x faster than Nemotron-Synth. Remarkably, a 3B model trained for 180B tokens on BeyondWeb outperforms an 8B model trained for the same token budget on Cosmopedia. We also present several insights from BeyondWeb on synthetic data for pretraining: what drives its benefits, which data to rephrase and how, and the impact of model size and family on data quality. Overall, our work shows that there's no silver bullet for generating high-quality synthetic pretraining data. The best outcomes require jointly optimizing many factors, a challenging task that requires rigorous science and practical expertise. Naive approaches can yield modest improvements, potentially at great cost, while well-executed methods can yield transformative improvements, as exemplified by BeyondWeb.

The saturation of high-quality pre-training data has shifted research focus toward evolutionary systems capable of continuously generating novel artifacts, leading to the success of AlphaEvolve. However, the progress of such systems is hindered by the lack of rigorous, quantitative evaluation. To tackle this challenge, we introduce CreativeBench, a benchmark for evaluating machine creativity in code generation, grounded in a classical cognitive framework. Comprising two subsets -- CreativeBench-Combo and CreativeBench-Explore -- the benchmark targets combinatorial and exploratory creativity through an automated pipeline utilizing reverse engineering and self-play. By leveraging executable code, CreativeBench objectively distinguishes creativity from hallucination via a unified metric defined as the product of quality and novelty. Our analysis of state-of-the-art models reveals distinct behaviors: (1) scaling significantly improves combinatorial creativity but yields diminishing returns for exploration; (2) larger models exhibit ``convergence-by-scaling,'' becoming more correct but less divergent; and (3) reasoning capabilities primarily benefit constrained exploration rather than combination. Finally, we propose EvoRePE, a plug-and-play inference-time steering strategy that internalizes evolutionary search patterns to consistently enhance machine creativity.

Cross-device Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed learning paradigm with several challenges that differentiate it from traditional distributed learning, variability in the system characteristics on each device, and millions of clients coordinating with a central server being primary ones. Most FL systems described in the literature are synchronous - they perform a synchronized aggregation of model updates from individual clients. Scaling synchronous FL is challenging since increasing the number of clients training in parallel leads to diminishing returns in training speed, analogous to large-batch training. Moreover, stragglers hinder synchronous FL training. In this work, we outline a production asynchronous FL system design. Our work tackles the aforementioned issues, sketches of some of the system design challenges and their solutions, and touches upon principles that emerged from building a production FL system for millions of clients. Empirically, we demonstrate that asynchronous FL converges faster than synchronous FL when training across nearly one hundred million devices. In particular, in high concurrency settings, asynchronous FL is 5x faster and has nearly 8x less communication overhead than synchronous FL.

The quality of subword tokenization is critical for Large Language Models, yet evaluating tokenizers for morphologically rich Uralic languages is hampered by the lack of clean morpheme lexicons. We introduce SampoNLP, a corpus-free toolkit for morphological lexicon creation using MDL-inspired Self-Referential Atomicity Scoring, which filters composite forms through internal structural cues - suited for low-resource settings. Using the high-purity lexicons generated by SampoNLP for Finnish, Hungarian, and Estonian, we conduct a systematic evaluation of BPE tokenizers across a range of vocabulary sizes (8k-256k). We propose a unified metric, the Integrated Performance Score (IPS), to navigate the trade-off between morpheme coverage and over-splitting. By analyzing the IPS curves, we identify the "elbow points" of diminishing returns and provide the first empirically grounded recommendations for optimal vocabulary sizes (k) in these languages. Our study not only offers practical guidance but also quantitatively demonstrates the limitations of standard BPE for highly agglutinative languages. The SampoNLP library and all generated resources are made publicly available: https://github.com/AragonerUA/SampoNLP

The exploration of thermoelectric materials is challenging considering the large materials space, combined with added exponential degrees of freedom coming from doping and the diversity of synthetic pathways. Here we seek to incorporate historical data and update and refine it using experimental feedback by employing error-correction learning (ECL). We thus learn from prior datasets and then adapt the model to differences in synthesis and characterization that are otherwise difficult to parameterize. We then apply this strategy to discovering thermoelectric materials where we prioritize synthesis at temperatures < 300{\deg}C. We document a previously unreported chemical family of thermoelectric materials, PbSe:SnSb, finding that the best candidate in this chemical family, 2 wt% SnSb doped PbSe, exhibits a power factor more than 2x that of PbSe. Our investigations show that our closed-loop experimentation strategy reduces the required number of experiments to find an optimized material by as much as 3x compared to high-throughput searches powered by state-of-the-art machine learning models. We also observe that this improvement is dependent on the accuracy of prior in a manner that exhibits diminishing returns, and after a certain accuracy is reached, it is factors associated with experimental pathways that dictate the trends.

Large language model (LLM) routing assigns each query to the most suitable model from an ensemble. We introduce LLMRouterBench, a large-scale benchmark and unified framework for LLM routing. It comprises over 400K instances from 21 datasets and 33 models. Moreover, it provides comprehensive metrics for both performance-oriented routing and performance-cost trade-off routing, and integrates 10 representative routing baselines. Using LLMRouterBench, we systematically re-evaluate the field. While confirming strong model complementarity-the central premise of LLM routing-we find that many routing methods exhibit similar performance under unified evaluation, and several recent approaches, including commercial routers, fail to reliably outperform a simple baseline. Meanwhile, a substantial gap remains to the Oracle, driven primarily by persistent model-recall failures. We further show that backbone embedding models have limited impact, that larger ensembles exhibit diminishing returns compared to careful model curation, and that the benchmark also enables latency-aware analysis. All code and data are available at https://github.com/ynulihao/LLMRouterBench.

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for producing new realizations from a limited set of available runs by transferring structure learned across an ensemble. Using monthly near-surface temperature time series from ten independent reanalysis realizations (ERA5), we find that a vanilla conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained jointly across realizations yields a fragmented latent space that fails to generalize to unseen ensemble members. To address this, we introduce a latent-constrained CVAE (LC-CVAE) that enforces cross-realization homogeneity of latent embeddings at a small set of shared geographic 'anchor' locations. We then use multi-output Gaussian process regression in the latent space to predict latent coordinates at unsampled locations in a new realization, followed by decoding to generate full time series fields. Experiments and ablations demonstrate (i) instability when training on a single realization, (ii) diminishing returns after incorporating roughly five realizations, and (iii) a trade-off between spatial coverage and reconstruction quality that is closely linked to the average neighbor distance in latent space.

Vision-language models (VLMs) benefit from multiple vision encoders, but naively stacking them yields diminishing returns while multiplying inference costs. We propose SCOPE, a Mixture-of-Encoders (MoEnc) framework that dynamically selects one specialized encoder per image-text pair via instance-level routing, unlike token-level routing in traditional MoE. SCOPE maintains a shared encoder and a pool of routed encoders. A lightweight router uses cross-attention between text prompts and shared visual features to select the optimal encoder from the routed encoders. To train this router, we introduce dual entropy regularization with auxiliary losses to balance dataset-level load distribution with instance-level routing confidence. Remarkably, SCOPE with one shared plus one routed encoder outperforms models using all four extra encoders simultaneously, while reducing compute by 24-49\%. This demonstrates that intelligent encoder selection beats brute-force aggregation, challenging the prevailing paradigm in multi-encoder VLMs.

The Polymorphic Combinatorial Framework (PCF) leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and mathematical frameworks to guide the meta-prompt enabled design of solution spaces and adaptive AI agents for complex, dynamic environments. Unlike static agent architectures, PCF enables real-time parameter reconfiguration through mathematically-grounded combinatorial spaces, allowing agents to adapt their core behavioral traits dynamically. Grounded in combinatorial logic, topos theory, and rough fuzzy set theory, PCF defines a multidimensional SPARK parameter space (Skills, Personalities, Approaches, Resources, Knowledge) to capture agent behaviors. This paper demonstrates how LLMs can parameterize complex spaces and estimate likely parameter values/variabilities. Using PCF, we parameterized mock caf\'e domains (five levels of complexity), estimated variables/variabilities, and conducted over 1.25 million Monte Carlo simulations. The results revealed trends in agent adaptability and performance across the five complexity tiers, with diminishing returns at higher complexity levels highlighting thresholds for scalable designs. PCF enables the generation of optimized agent configurations for specific scenarios while maintaining logical consistency. This framework supports scalable, dynamic, explainable, and ethical AI applications in domains like customer service, healthcare, robotics, and collaborative systems, paving the way for adaptable and cooperative next-generation polymorphic agents.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a key technique for compressing large language models into smaller ones while preserving performance. Despite the recent traction of KD research, its effectiveness for smaller language models (LMs) and the mechanisms driving knowledge transfer remain underexplored. In this work, we present the first large-scale empirical and statistical analysis of KD across models ranging from 0.5B to 7B parameters on 14 complex reasoning tasks in a zero-shot setting. Our findings reveal that KD can improve the average performance of smaller models by up to 10%, with a peak task specific gain of 22%, while providing only marginal benefits (sim 1.3%) for larger models. Surprisingly, teacher performance has a minimal impact on student outcomes, while teacher task expertise impacts KD effectiveness. A correlation study indicates that smaller LMs benefit more from KD, whereas larger LMs show diminished gains. Additionally, we uncover a misalignment between improvements in student performance and reasoning fidelity, suggesting that while KD enhances accuracy, it does not always maintain the structured decision-making processes of the teacher. Our ablation study further highlights the importance of teacher signals and logit smoothing in influencing students' performance after distillation. Overall, our study offers a comprehensive empirical and statistical assessment of KD, highlighting both its benefits and trade-offs when distilling knowledge from larger to smaller LMs.

This study explores the scaling properties of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) in Large Language Models (LLMs). Although RLHF is considered an important step in post-training of LLMs, its scaling potential is still largely unknown. We systematically analyze key components in the RLHF framework--model size, data composition, and inference budget--and their impacts on performance. Our findings show that increasing data diversity and volume improves reward model performance, helping process-supervision models scale better. For policy training, more response samples per prompt boost performance initially but quickly plateau. And larger reward models offer modest gains in policy training. In addition, larger policy models benefit less from RLHF with a fixed reward model. Overall, RLHF scales less efficiently than pretraining, with diminishing returns from additional computational resources. Based on these observations, we propose strategies to optimize RLHF performance within computational limits.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on various benchmarks, yet their ability to engage in deliberate reasoning remains questionable. We present NYT-Connections, a collection of 358 simple word classification puzzles derived from the New York Times Connections game. This benchmark is designed to penalize quick, intuitive "System 1" thinking, isolating fundamental reasoning skills. We evaluated six recent LLMs, a simple machine learning heuristic, and humans across three configurations: single-attempt, multiple attempts without hints, and multiple attempts with contextual hints. Our findings reveal a significant performance gap: even top-performing LLMs like GPT-4 fall short of human performance by nearly 30%. Notably, advanced prompting techniques such as Chain-of-Thought and Self-Consistency show diminishing returns as task difficulty increases. NYT-Connections uniquely combines linguistic isolation, resistance to intuitive shortcuts, and regular updates to mitigate data leakage, offering a novel tool for assessing LLM reasoning capabilities.

Recent advances have demonstrated that large language models (LLMs) excel as listwise rerankers, but their high computational demands remain a barrier to widespread adoption. Further, the traditional language modeling (LM) objective is not ideally suited for reranking tasks. FIRST is a novel approach that addresses these challenges by integrating a learning-to-rank objective and leveraging the logits of only the first generated token, thereby significantly reducing inference latency compared to traditional LLM rerankers. In this study, we extend the evaluation of FIRST to the TREC Deep Learning datasets (DL19-22), validating its robustness across diverse domains. We investigate the influence of different first-stage retrievers on FIRST rerankers, observing diminishing returns and patterns consistent with traditional LLM rerankers. Through applying the FIRST objective to a broader range of backbone models, we achieve effectiveness surpassing the original implementation. Our experiments confirm that fast reranking with single-token logits does not compromise out-of-domain reranking quality. To better quantify the computational savings in the original study, we measure and compare latency to find a 21%-42% gain across various models and benchmarks. Moreover, while LM training implicitly improves zero-shot single-token reranking, our experiments also raise questions about whether LM pre-training may hinder subsequent fine-tuning with the FIRST objective. These findings pave the way for more efficient and effective listwise reranking in future applications.

While protein language models (pLMs) have transformed biological research, the scaling laws governing their improvement remain underexplored. By adapting methodologies from NLP scaling laws, we investigated the optimal ratio between model parameters and training tokens within a fixed compute budget. Our study reveals that pLM sizes scale sublinearly with compute budget, showing diminishing returns in performance as model size increases, and we identify a performance plateau in training loss comparable to the one found in relevant works in the field. Our findings suggest that widely-used pLMs might not be compute-optimal, indicating that larger models could achieve convergence more efficiently. Training a 35M model on a reduced token set, we attained perplexity results comparable to larger models like ESM-2 (15B) and xTrimoPGLM (100B) with a single dataset pass. This work paves the way towards more compute-efficient pLMs, democratizing their training and practical application in computational biology.

Large kernels make standard convolutional neural networks (CNNs) great again over transformer architectures in various vision tasks. Nonetheless, recent studies meticulously designed around increasing kernel size have shown diminishing returns or stagnation in performance. Thus, the hidden factors of large kernel convolution that affect model performance remain unexplored. In this paper, we reveal that the key hidden factors of large kernels can be summarized as two separate components: extracting features at a certain granularity and fusing features by multiple pathways. To this end, we leverage the multi-path long-distance sparse dependency relationship to enhance feature utilization via the proposed Shiftwise (SW) convolution operator with a pure CNN architecture. In a wide range of vision tasks such as classification, segmentation, and detection, SW surpasses state-of-the-art transformers and CNN architectures, including SLaK and UniRepLKNet. More importantly, our experiments demonstrate that 3 times 3 convolutions can replace large convolutions in existing large kernel CNNs to achieve comparable effects, which may inspire follow-up works. Code and all the models at https://github.com/lidc54/shift-wiseConv.

To process novel sentences, language models (LMs) must generalize compositionally -- combine familiar elements in new ways. What aspects of a model's structure promote compositional generalization? Focusing on transformers, we test the hypothesis, motivated by recent theoretical and empirical work, that transformers generalize more compositionally when they are deeper (have more layers). Because simply adding layers increases the total number of parameters, confounding depth and size, we construct three classes of models which trade off depth for width such that the total number of parameters is kept constant (41M, 134M and 374M parameters). We pretrain all models as LMs and fine-tune them on tasks that test for compositional generalization. We report three main conclusions: (1) after fine-tuning, deeper models generalize better out-of-distribution than shallower models do, but the relative benefit of additional layers diminishes rapidly; (2) within each family, deeper models show better language modeling performance, but returns are similarly diminishing; (3) the benefits of depth for compositional generalization cannot be attributed solely to better performance on language modeling or on in-distribution data.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a key ingredient for unlocking complex reasoning capabilities in large language models. Recent work ProRL has shown promise in scaling RL by increasing the number of training steps. However, performance plateaus after thousands of steps, with clear diminishing returns from allocating more computation to additional training. In this work, we investigate a complementary paradigm for scaling RL, BroR-Lincreasing the number of rollouts per example to hundreds to exhaustively Broaden exploration, which yields continuous performance gains beyond the saturation point observed in ProRL when scaling the number of training steps. Our approach is motivated by a mass balance equation analysis allowing us to characterize the rate of change in probability mass for correct and incorrect tokens during the reinforcement process. We show that under a one-step RL assumption, sampled rollout tokens always contribute to correct-mass expansion, while unsampled tokens outside rollouts may lead to gains or losses depending on their distribution and the net reward balance. Importantly, as the number of rollouts per example N increases, the effect of unsampled terms diminishes, ensuring overall correct-mass expansion. To validate our theoretical analysis, we conduct simulations under more relaxed conditions and find that a sufficiently large rollout size N-corresponding to ample exploration-guarantees an increase in the probability mass of all correct tokens. Empirically, BroRL revives models saturated after 3K ProRL training steps and demonstrates robust, continuous improvement, achieving state-of-the-art results for the 1.5B model across diverse benchmarks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) to elicit reliable chain-of-thought reasoning. However, the training process remains bottlenecked by the computationally expensive rollout stage. Existing acceleration methods-such as parallelization, objective- and data-driven modifications, and replay buffers-either incur diminishing returns, introduce bias, or overlook redundancy across iterations. We identify that rollouts from consecutive training epochs frequently share a large portion of overlapping segments, wasting computation. To address this, we propose SPEC-RL, a novel framework that integrates SPECulative decoding with the RL rollout process. SPEC-RL reuses prior trajectory segments as speculative prefixes and extends them via a draft-and-verify mechanism, avoiding redundant generation while ensuring policy consistency. Experiments on diverse math reasoning and generalization benchmarks, including GSM8K, MATH-500, OlympiadBench, MMLU-STEM, and others, demonstrate that SPEC-RL reduces rollout time by 2-3x without compromising policy quality. As a purely rollout-stage enhancement, SPEC-RL integrates seamlessly with mainstream algorithms (e.g., PPO, GRPO, DAPO), offering a general and practical path to scale RLVR for large reasoning models. Our code is available at https://github.com/ShopeeLLM/Spec-RL

Sleep quality is influenced by a complex interplay of behavioral, environmental, and psychosocial factors, yet most computational studies focus mainly on predictive risk identification rather than actionable intervention design. Although machine learning models can accurately predict subjective sleep outcomes, they rarely translate predictive insights into practical intervention strategies. To address this gap, we propose a personalized predictive-prescriptive framework that integrates interpretable machine learning with mixed-integer optimization. A supervised classifier trained on survey data predicts sleep quality, while SHAP-based feature attribution quantifies the influence of modifiable factors. These importance measures are incorporated into a mixed-integer optimization model that identifies minimal and feasible behavioral adjustments, while modelling resistance to change through a penalty mechanism. The framework achieves strong predictive performance, with a test F1-score of 0.9544 and an accuracy of 0.9366. Sensitivity and Pareto analyses reveal a clear trade-off between expected improvement and intervention intensity, with diminishing returns as additional changes are introduced. At the individual level, the model generates concise recommendations, often suggesting one or two high-impact behavioral adjustments and sometimes recommending no change when expected gains are minimal. By integrating prediction, explanation, and constrained optimization, this framework demonstrates how data-driven insights can be translated into structured and personalized decision support for sleep improvement.

The inference cost of Large Language Models (LLMs) has become a critical factor in determining their commercial viability and widespread adoption. This paper introduces a quantitative ``economics of inference'' framework, treating the LLM inference process as a compute-driven intelligent production activity. We analyze its marginal cost, economies of scale, and quality of output under various performance configurations. Based on empirical data from WiNEval-3.0, we construct the first ``LLM Inference Production Frontier,'' revealing three principles: diminishing marginal cost, diminishing returns to scale, and an optimal cost-effectiveness zone. This paper not only provides an economic basis for model deployment decisions but also lays an empirical foundation for the future market-based pricing and optimization of AI inference resources.

While Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures have become the standard for sparsity scaling in large language models, they increasingly face diminishing returns and system-level bottlenecks. In this work, we explore embedding scaling as a potent, orthogonal dimension for scaling sparsity. Through a comprehensive analysis and experiments, we identify specific regimes where embedding scaling achieves a superior Pareto frontier compared to expert scaling. We systematically characterize the critical architectural factors governing this efficacy -- ranging from parameter budgeting to the interplay with model width and depth. Moreover, by integrating tailored system optimizations and speculative decoding, we effectively convert this sparsity into tangible inference speedups. Guided by these insights, we introduce LongCat-Flash-Lite, a 68.5B parameter model with ~3B activated trained from scratch. Despite allocating over 30B parameters to embeddings, LongCat-Flash-Lite not only surpasses parameter-equivalent MoE baselines but also exhibits exceptional competitiveness against existing models of comparable scale, particularly in agentic and coding domains.

Recent advances in behavior cloning (BC) have enabled impressive visuomotor control policies. However, these approaches are limited by the quality of human demonstrations, the manual effort required for data collection, and the diminishing returns from increasing offline data. In comparison, reinforcement learning (RL) trains an agent through autonomous interaction with the environment and has shown remarkable success in various domains. Still, training RL policies directly on real-world robots remains challenging due to sample inefficiency, safety concerns, and the difficulty of learning from sparse rewards for long-horizon tasks, especially for high-degree-of-freedom (DoF) systems. We present a recipe that combines the benefits of BC and RL through a residual learning framework. Our approach leverages BC policies as black-box bases and learns lightweight per-step residual corrections via sample-efficient off-policy RL. We demonstrate that our method requires only sparse binary reward signals and can effectively improve manipulation policies on high-degree-of-freedom (DoF) systems in both simulation and the real world. In particular, we demonstrate, to the best of our knowledge, the first successful real-world RL training on a humanoid robot with dexterous hands. Our results demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in various vision-based tasks, pointing towards a practical pathway for deploying RL in the real world. Project website: https://residual-offpolicy-rl.github.io

Inference-time scaling can enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) on complex problems that benefit from step-by-step problem solving. Although lengthening generated scratchpads has proven effective for mathematical tasks, the broader impact of this approach on other tasks remains less clear. In this work, we investigate the benefits and limitations of scaling methods across nine state-of-the-art models and eight challenging tasks, including math and STEM reasoning, calendar planning, NP-hard problems, navigation, and spatial reasoning. We compare conventional models (e.g., GPT-4o) with models fine-tuned for inference-time scaling (e.g., o1) through evaluation protocols that involve repeated model calls, either independently or sequentially with feedback. These evaluations approximate lower and upper performance bounds and potential for future performance improvements for each model, whether through enhanced training or multi-model inference systems. Our extensive empirical analysis reveals that the advantages of inference-time scaling vary across tasks and diminish as problem complexity increases. In addition, simply using more tokens does not necessarily translate to higher accuracy in these challenging regimes. Results from multiple independent runs with conventional models using perfect verifiers show that, for some tasks, these models can achieve performance close to the average performance of today's most advanced reasoning models. However, for other tasks, a significant performance gap remains, even in very high scaling regimes. Encouragingly, all models demonstrate significant gains when inference is further scaled with perfect verifiers or strong feedback, suggesting ample potential for future improvements.

Capturing complex user preferences from sparse behavioral sequences remains a fundamental challenge in sequential recommendation. Recent latent reasoning methods have shown promise by extending test-time computation through multi-step reasoning, yet they exclusively rely on depth-level scaling along a single trajectory, suffering from diminishing returns as reasoning depth increases. To address this limitation, we propose Parallel Latent Reasoning (PLR), a novel framework that pioneers width-level computational scaling by exploring multiple diverse reasoning trajectories simultaneously. PLR constructs parallel reasoning streams through learnable trigger tokens in continuous latent space, preserves diversity across streams via global reasoning regularization, and adaptively synthesizes multi-stream outputs through mixture-of-reasoning-streams aggregation. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that PLR substantially outperforms state-of-the-art baselines while maintaining real-time inference efficiency. Theoretical analysis further validates the effectiveness of parallel reasoning in improving generalization capability. Our work opens new avenues for enhancing reasoning capacity in sequential recommendation beyond existing depth scaling.

A fine-grained data recipe is crucial for pre-training large language models, as it can significantly enhance training efficiency and model performance. One important ingredient in the recipe is to select samples based on scores produced by defined rules, LLM judgment, or statistical information in embeddings, which can be roughly categorized into quality and diversity metrics. Due to the high computational cost when applied to trillion-scale token pre-training datasets such as FineWeb and DCLM, these two or more types of metrics are rarely considered jointly in a single selection process. However, in our empirical study, selecting samples based on quality metrics exhibit severe diminishing returns during long-term pre-training, while selecting on diversity metrics removes too many valuable high-quality samples, both of which limit pre-trained LLMs' capabilities. Therefore, we introduce DATAMASK, a novel and efficient joint learning framework designed for large-scale pre-training data selection that can simultaneously optimize multiple types of metrics in a unified process, with this study focusing specifically on quality and diversity metrics. DATAMASK approaches the selection process as a mask learning problem, involving iterative sampling of data masks, computation of policy gradients based on predefined objectives with sampled masks, and updating of mask sampling logits. Through policy gradient-based optimization and various acceleration enhancements, it significantly reduces selection time by 98.9% compared to greedy algorithm, enabling our study to explore joint learning within trillion-scale tokens. With DATAMASK, we select a subset of about 10% from the 15 trillion-token FineWeb dataset, termed FineWeb-Mask. Evaluated across 12 diverse tasks, we achieves significant improvements of 3.2% on a 1.5B dense model and 1.9% on a 7B MoE model.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) couples document retrieval with large language models (LLMs). While scaling generators improves accuracy, it also raises cost and limits deployability. We explore an orthogonal axis: enlarging the retriever's corpus to reduce reliance on large LLMs. Experimental results show that corpus scaling consistently strengthens RAG and can often serve as a substitute for increasing model size, though with diminishing returns at larger scales. Small- and mid-sized generators paired with larger corpora often rival much larger models with smaller corpora; mid-sized models tend to gain the most, while tiny and large models benefit less. Our analysis shows that improvements arise primarily from increased coverage of answer-bearing passages, while utilization efficiency remains largely unchanged. These findings establish a principled corpus-generator trade-off: investing in larger corpora offers an effective path to stronger RAG, often comparable to enlarging the LLM itself.

As code large language models (LLMs) evolve into tool-interactive agents via the Model Context Protocol (MCP), their generalization is increasingly limited by low-quality synthetic data and the diminishing returns of quantity scaling. Moreover, quantity-centric scaling exhibits an early bottleneck that underutilizes trajectory data. We propose TDScaling, a Trajectory Diversity Scaling-based data synthesis framework for code agents that scales performance through diversity rather than raw volume. Under a fixed training budget, increasing trajectory diversity yields larger gains than adding more trajectories, improving the performance-cost trade-off for agent training. TDScaling integrates four innovations: (1) a Business Cluster mechanism that captures real-service logical dependencies; (2) a blueprint-driven multi-agent paradigm that enforces trajectory coherence; (3) an adaptive evolution mechanism that steers synthesis toward long-tail scenarios using Domain Entropy, Reasoning Mode Entropy, and Cumulative Action Complexity to prevent mode collapse; and (4) a sandboxed code tool that mitigates catastrophic forgetting of intrinsic coding capabilities. Experiments on general tool-use benchmarks (BFCL, tau^2-Bench) and code agent tasks (RebenchT, CodeCI, BIRD) demonstrate a win-win outcome: TDScaling improves both tool-use generalization and inherent coding proficiency. We plan to release the full codebase and the synthesized dataset (including 30,000+ tool clusters) upon publication.

Progress on training and architecture strategies has enabled LLMs with millions of tokens in context length. However, empirical evidence suggests that such long-context LLMs can consume far more text than they can reliably use. On the other hand, it has been shown that inference-time compute can be used to scale performance of LLMs, often by generating thinking tokens, on challenging tasks involving multi-step reasoning. Through controlled experiments on sandbox long-context tasks, we find that such inference-time strategies show rapidly diminishing returns and fail at long context. We attribute these failures to score dilution, a phenomenon inherent to static self-attention. Further, we show that current inference-time strategies cannot retrieve relevant long-context signals under certain conditions. We propose a simple method that, through targeted gradient updates on the given context, provably overcomes limitations of static self-attention. We find that this shift in how inference-time compute is spent leads to consistently large performance improvements across models and long-context benchmarks. Our method leads to large 12.6 and 14.1 percentage point improvements for Qwen3-4B on average across subsets of LongBench-v2 and ZeroScrolls benchmarks. The takeaway is practical: for long context, a small amount of context-specific training is a better use of inference compute than current inference-time scaling strategies like producing more thinking tokens.

There has been significant interest in "extreme" compression of large language models (LLMs), i.e., to 1-2 bits per parameter, which allows such models to be executed efficiently on resource-constrained devices. Existing work focused on improved one-shot quantization techniques and weight representations; yet, purely post-training approaches are reaching diminishing returns in terms of the accuracy-vs-bit-width trade-off. State-of-the-art quantization methods such as QuIP# and AQLM include fine-tuning (part of) the compressed parameters over a limited amount of calibration data; however, such fine-tuning techniques over compressed weights often make exclusive use of straight-through estimators (STE), whose performance is not well-understood in this setting. In this work, we question the use of STE for extreme LLM compression, showing that it can be sub-optimal, and perform a systematic study of quantization-aware fine-tuning strategies for LLMs. We propose PV-Tuning - a representation-agnostic framework that generalizes and improves upon existing fine-tuning strategies, and provides convergence guarantees in restricted cases. On the practical side, when used for 1-2 bit vector quantization, PV-Tuning outperforms prior techniques for highly-performant models such as Llama and Mistral. Using PV-Tuning, we achieve the first Pareto-optimal quantization for Llama 2 family models at 2 bits per parameter.

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) pose a critical privacy threat to fine-tuned large language models (LLMs), especially when models are adapted to domain-specific tasks using sensitive data. While prior black-box MIA techniques rely on confidence scores or token likelihoods, these signals are often entangled with a sample's intrinsic properties - such as content difficulty or rarity - leading to poor generalization and low signal-to-noise ratios. In this paper, we propose ICP-MIA, a novel MIA framework grounded in the theory of training dynamics, particularly the phenomenon of diminishing returns during optimization. We introduce the Optimization Gap as a fundamental signal of membership: at convergence, member samples exhibit minimal remaining loss-reduction potential, while non-members retain significant potential for further optimization. To estimate this gap in a black-box setting, we propose In-Context Probing (ICP), a training-free method that simulates fine-tuning-like behavior via strategically constructed input contexts. We propose two probing strategies: reference-data-based (using semantically similar public samples) and self-perturbation (via masking or generation). Experiments on three tasks and multiple LLMs show that ICP-MIA significantly outperforms prior black-box MIAs, particularly at low false positive rates. We further analyze how reference data alignment, model type, PEFT configurations, and training schedules affect attack effectiveness. Our findings establish ICP-MIA as a practical and theoretically grounded framework for auditing privacy risks in deployed LLMs.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have created new opportunities to enhance performance on complex reasoning tasks by leveraging test-time computation. However, conventional approaches such as repeated sampling with majority voting or reward model scoring, often face diminishing returns as test-time compute scales, in addition to requiring costly task-specific reward model training. In this paper, we present Self-Enhanced Test-Time Scaling (SETS), a novel method that leverages the self-verification and self-correction capabilities of recent advanced LLMs to overcome these limitations. SETS integrates sampling, self-verification, and self-correction into a unified framework, enabling efficient and scalable test-time computation for improved capabilities at complex tasks. Through extensive experiments on challenging planning and reasoning benchmarks, compared to the alternatives, we demonstrate that SETS achieves significant performance improvements and more favorable test-time scaling laws.

MoltBook is a large-scale multi-agent coordination environment where over 770,000 autonomous LLM agents interact without human participation, offering the first opportunity we are aware of to observe emergent multi-agent coordination dynamics at this population scale. We introduce Molt Dynamics: the emergent agent coordination behaviors, inter-agent communication dynamics, and role specialization patterns arising when autonomous agents operate as decentralized decision-makers in an unconstrained multi-agent environment. Through longitudinal observation of 90,704 active agents over three weeks, we characterize three aspects. First, spontaneous role specialization: network-based clustering reveals six structural roles (silhouette 0.91), though the result primarily reflects core-periphery organization -- 93.5\% of agents occupy a homogeneous peripheral cluster, with meaningful differentiation confined to the active minority. Second, decentralized information dissemination: cascade analysis of 10,323 inter-agent propagation events reveals power-law distributed cascade sizes (α= 2.57 pm 0.02) and saturating adoption dynamics where adoption probability shows diminishing returns with repeated exposures (Cox hazard ratio 0.53, concordance 0.78). Third, distributed cooperative task resolution: 164 multi-agent collaborative events show detectable coordination patterns, but success rates are low (6.7\%, p = 0.057) and cooperative outcomes are significantly worse than a matched single-agent baseline (Cohen's d = -0.88), indicating emergent cooperative behavior is nascent. These findings establish an empirical baseline for coordination dynamics in decentralized autonomous agent systems, with implications for multi-agent system design, agent communication protocol engineering, and AI safety.

We present an in-depth evaluation of LLMs' ability to negotiate, a central business task that requires strategic reasoning, theory of mind, and economic value creation. To do so, we introduce PieArena, a large-scale negotiation benchmark grounded in multi-agent interactions over realistic scenarios drawn from an MBA negotiation course at an elite business school. We develop a statistically grounded ranking model for continuous negotiation payoffs that produces leaderboards with principled confidence intervals and corrects for experimental asymmetries. We find systematic evidence of human-expert-level performance in which a representative frontier language agent (GPT-5) matches or outperforms trained business-school students, despite a semester of general negotiation instruction and targeted coaching immediately prior to the task. We further study the effects of joint-intentionality agentic scaffolding and observe asymmetric gains, with large improvements for mid- and lower-tier LMs and diminishing returns for frontier LMs. Beyond deal outcomes, PieArena provides a multi-dimensional negotiation behavioral profile, revealing novel cross-model heterogeneity, masked by deal-outcome-only benchmarks, in deception, computation accuracy, instruction compliance, and perceived reputation. Overall, our results suggest that frontier language agents are already intellectually and psychologically capable of deployment in high-stakes economic settings, but deficiencies in robustness and trustworthiness remain open challenges.

LLM-based multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a promising approach to tackle complex tasks that are difficult for individual LLMs. A natural strategy is to scale performance by increasing the number of agents; however, we find that such scaling exhibits strong diminishing returns in homogeneous settings, while introducing heterogeneity (e.g., different models, prompts, or tools) continues to yield substantial gains. This raises a fundamental question: what limits scaling, and why does diversity help? We present an information-theoretic framework showing that MAS performance is bounded by the intrinsic task uncertainty, not by agent count. We derive architecture-agnostic bounds demonstrating that improvements depend on how many effective channels the system accesses. Homogeneous agents saturate early because their outputs are strongly correlated, whereas heterogeneous agents contribute complementary evidence. We further introduce K^*, an effective channel count that quantifies the number of effective channels without ground-truth labels. Empirically, we show that heterogeneous configurations consistently outperform homogeneous scaling: 2 diverse agents can match or exceed the performance of 16 homogeneous agents. Our results provide principled guidelines for building efficient and robust MAS through diversity-aware design. Code and Dataset are available at the link: https://github.com/SafeRL-Lab/Agent-Scaling.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has advanced visual representation learning, but its value in chest radiography, a high-volume imaging modality with fine-grained findings, remains unclear. Meta's DINOv3 extends earlier SSL models through Gram-anchored self-distillation. Whether these design choices improve transfer learning for chest radiography has not been systematically tested. We benchmarked DINOv3 against DINOv2 and ImageNet initialization across seven datasets (n>814,000). Two representative backbones were evaluated: ViT-B/16 and ConvNeXt-B. Images were analyzed at 224x224, 512x512, and 1024x1024 pixels. We additionally assessed frozen features from a 7B model. The primary outcome was mean AUROC across labels. At 224x224, DINOv3 and DINOv2 achieved comparable performance on adult datasets. Increasing resolution to 512x512 yielded consistent improvements for DINOv3 over both DINOv2 and ImageNet. In contrast, results in pediatric cohort showed no differences across initializations. Across all settings, ConvNeXt-B outperformed ViT-B/16. Models using frozen DINOv3-7B features underperformed relative to fully finetuned 86-89M-parameter backbones, highlighting the importance of domain adaptation. Scaling to 1024x1024 did not further improve accuracy. Resolution-related gains were most evident for boundary-dependent and small focal abnormalities. In chest radiography, higher input resolution is critical for leveraging the benefits of modern self-supervised models. 512x512 pixels represent a practical upper limit where DINOv3-initialized ConvNeXt-B networks provide the strongest performance, while larger inputs offer minimal return on cost. Clinically, these findings support use of finetuned, mid-sized backbones at 512x512 for chest radiograph interpretation, with the greatest gains expected in detecting subtle or boundary-centered lesions relevant to emergency and critical care settings.

Large language models for code generation increasingly rely on synthetic data, where both problem solutions and verification tests are generated by models. While this enables scalable data creation, it introduces a previously unexplored bottleneck: the verification ceiling, in which the quality and diversity of training data are fundamentally constrained by the capabilities of synthetic verifiers. In this work, we systematically study how verification design and strategies influence model performance. We investigate (i) what we verify by analyzing the impact of test complexity and quantity: richer test suites improve code generation capabilities (on average +3 pass@1), while quantity alone yields diminishing returns, (ii) how we verify by exploring relaxed pass thresholds: rigid 100% pass criteria can be overly restrictive. By allowing for relaxed thresholds or incorporating LLM-based soft verification, we can recover valuable training data, leading to a 2-4 point improvement in pass@1 performance. However, this benefit is contingent upon the strength and diversity of the test cases used, and (iii) why verification remains necessary through controlled comparisons of formally correct versus incorrect solutions and human evaluation: retaining diverse correct solutions per problem yields consistent generalization gains. Our results show that Verification as currently practiced is too rigid, filtering out valuable diversity. But it cannot be discarded, only recalibrated. By combining calibrated verification with diverse, challenging problem-solution pairs, we outline a path to break the verification ceiling and unlock stronger code generation models.

Scientific innovation is undergoing a paradigm shift driven by the rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs). As science faces mounting challenges including information overload, disciplinary silos, and diminishing returns on conventional research methods, LLMs are emerging as powerful agents capable not only of enhancing scientific workflows but also of participating in and potentially leading the innovation process. Existing surveys mainly focus on different perspectives, phrases, and tasks in scientific research and discovery, while they have limitations in understanding the transformative potential and role differentiation of LLM. This survey proposes a comprehensive framework to categorize the evolving roles of LLMs in scientific innovation across three hierarchical levels: Evaluator, Collaborator, and Scientist. We distinguish between LLMs' contributions to structured scientific research processes and open-ended scientific discovery, thereby offering a unified taxonomy that clarifies capability boundaries, evaluation criteria, and human-AI interaction patterns at each level. Through an extensive analysis of current methodologies, benchmarks, systems, and evaluation metrics, this survey delivers an in-depth and systematic synthesis on LLM-driven scientific innovation. We present LLMs not only as tools for automating existing processes, but also as catalysts capable of reshaping the epistemological foundations of science itself. This survey offers conceptual clarity, practical guidance, and theoretical foundations for future research, while also highlighting open challenges and ethical considerations in the pursuit of increasingly autonomous AI-driven science. Resources related to this survey can be accessed on GitHub at: https://github.com/haoxuan-unt2024/llm4innovation.

The widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation, exemplified by GitHub CopilotA coding extension powered by a Code-LLM to assist in code completion tasks surpassing a million users, highlights the transformative potential of these tools in improving developer productivity. However, this rapid growth also underscores critical concerns regarding the quality, safety, and reliability of the code they generate. As Code-LLMs evolve, they face significant challenges, including the diminishing returns of model scaling and the scarcity of new, high-quality training data. To address these issues, this paper introduces Adversarial Knowledge Distillation (AKD), a novel approach that leverages adversarially generated synthetic datasets to distill the capabilities of larger models into smaller, more efficient ones. By systematically stress-testing and refining the reasoning capabilities of Code-LLMs, AKD provides a framework for enhancing model robustness, reliability, and security while improving their parameter-efficiency. We believe this work represents a critical step toward ensuring dependable automated code generation within the constraints of existing data and the cost-efficiency of model execution.

We explore the impact of multi-source input strategies on machine translation (MT) quality, comparing GPT-4o, a large language model (LLM), with a traditional multilingual neural machine translation (NMT) system. Using intermediate language translations as contextual cues, we evaluate their effectiveness in enhancing English and Chinese translations into Portuguese. Results suggest that contextual information significantly improves translation quality for domain-specific datasets and potentially for linguistically distant language pairs, with diminishing returns observed in benchmarks with high linguistic variability. Additionally, we demonstrate that shallow fusion, a multi-source approach we apply within the NMT system, shows improved results when using high-resource languages as context for other translation pairs, highlighting the importance of strategic context language selection.

In reinforcement learning (RL), rewards of states are typically considered additive, and following the Markov assumption, they are independent of states visited previously. In many important applications, such as coverage control, experiment design and informative path planning, rewards naturally have diminishing returns, i.e., their value decreases in light of similar states visited previously. To tackle this, we propose submodular RL (SubRL), a paradigm which seeks to optimize more general, non-additive (and history-dependent) rewards modelled via submodular set functions which capture diminishing returns. Unfortunately, in general, even in tabular settings, we show that the resulting optimization problem is hard to approximate. On the other hand, motivated by the success of greedy algorithms in classical submodular optimization, we propose SubPO, a simple policy gradient-based algorithm for SubRL that handles non-additive rewards by greedily maximizing marginal gains. Indeed, under some assumptions on the underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP), SubPO recovers optimal constant factor approximations of submodular bandits. Moreover, we derive a natural policy gradient approach for locally optimizing SubRL instances even in large state- and action- spaces. We showcase the versatility of our approach by applying SubPO to several applications, such as biodiversity monitoring, Bayesian experiment design, informative path planning, and coverage maximization. Our results demonstrate sample efficiency, as well as scalability to high-dimensional state-action spaces.

Contrastive learning has become a key component of self-supervised learning approaches for computer vision. By learning to embed two augmented versions of the same image close to each other and to push the embeddings of different images apart, one can train highly transferable visual representations. As revealed by recent studies, heavy data augmentation and large sets of negatives are both crucial in learning such representations. At the same time, data mixing strategies either at the image or the feature level improve both supervised and semi-supervised learning by synthesizing novel examples, forcing networks to learn more robust features. In this paper, we argue that an important aspect of contrastive learning, i.e., the effect of hard negatives, has so far been neglected. To get more meaningful negative samples, current top contrastive self-supervised learning approaches either substantially increase the batch sizes, or keep very large memory banks; increasing the memory size, however, leads to diminishing returns in terms of performance. We therefore start by delving deeper into a top-performing framework and show evidence that harder negatives are needed to facilitate better and faster learning. Based on these observations, and motivated by the success of data mixing, we propose hard negative mixing strategies at the feature level, that can be computed on-the-fly with a minimal computational overhead. We exhaustively ablate our approach on linear classification, object detection and instance segmentation and show that employing our hard negative mixing procedure improves the quality of visual representations learned by a state-of-the-art self-supervised learning method.

As post-training optimization becomes central to improving large language models, we observe a persistent saturation bottleneck: once models grow highly confident, further training yields diminishing returns. While existing methods continue to reinforce target predictions, we find that informative supervision signals remain latent in models' own historical weak states. Motivated by this observation, we propose WMSS (Weak Agents Can Make Strong Agents Stronger), a post-training paradigm that leverages weak checkpoints to guide continued optimization. By identifying recoverable learning gaps via entropy dynamics and reinforcing them through compensatory learning, WMSS enables strong agents to improve beyond conventional post-training saturation. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation datasets show that agents trained with our approach achieve effective performance improvements, while incurring zero additional inference cost.

As large language models from diverse providers converge toward comparable benchmark performance, the traditional paradigm of selecting a single best model per task yields diminishing returns. We argue that orchestration topology -- the structural composition of how multiple agents are coordinated, parallelized, and synthesized -- now dominates system-level performance over individual model capability. We present AdaptOrch, a formal framework for task-adaptive multi-agent orchestration that dynamically selects among four canonical topologies (parallel, sequential, hierarchical, and hybrid) based on task dependency graphs and empirically derived domain characteristics. Our framework introduces three key contributions: (1) a Performance Convergence Scaling Law, formalizing conditions under which orchestration selection outweighs model selection; (2) a Topology Routing Algorithm that maps task decomposition DAGs to optimal orchestration patterns in O(|V| + |E|) time; and (3) an Adaptive Synthesis Protocol with provable termination guarantees and heuristic consistency scoring for parallel agent outputs. We validate AdaptOrch across coding (SWE-bench), reasoning (GPQA), and retrieval-augmented generation tasks, demonstrating that topology-aware orchestration achieves 12-23% improvement over static single-topology baselines, even when using identical underlying models. Our results establish orchestration design as a first-class optimization target independent of model scaling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming search engines into Conversational Search Engines (CSE). Consequently, Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is being shifted into Conversational Search Engine Optimization (C-SEO). We are beginning to see dedicated C-SEO methods for modifying web documents to increase their visibility in CSE responses. However, they are often tested only for a limited breadth of application domains; we do not understand whether certain C-SEO methods would be effective for a broad range of domains. Moreover, existing evaluations consider only a single-actor scenario where only one web document adopts a C-SEO method; in reality, multiple players are likely to competitively adopt the cutting-edge C-SEO techniques, drawing an analogy from the dynamics we have seen in SEO. We present C-SEO Bench, the first benchmark designed to evaluate C-SEO methods across multiple tasks, domains, and number of actors. We consider two search tasks, question answering and product recommendation, with three domains each. We also formalize a new evaluation protocol with varying adoption rates among involved actors. Our experiments reveal that most current C-SEO methods are largely ineffective, contrary to reported results in the literature. Instead, traditional SEO strategies, those aiming to improve the ranking of the source in the LLM context, are significantly more effective. We also observe that as we increase the number of C-SEO adopters, the overall gains decrease, depicting a congested and zero-sum nature of the problem. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/parameterlab/c-seo-bench and https://huggingface.co/datasets/parameterlab/c-seo-bench.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) present a promising non-sequential paradigm for text generation, distinct from standard autoregressive (AR) approaches. However, current decoding strategies often adopt a reactive stance, underutilizing the global bidirectional context to dictate global trajectories. To address this, we propose Plan-Verify-Fill (PVF), a training-free paradigm that grounds planning via quantitative validation. PVF actively constructs a hierarchical skeleton by prioritizing high-leverage semantic anchors and employs a verification protocol to operationalize pragmatic structural stopping where further deliberation yields diminishing returns. Extensive evaluations on LLaDA-8B-Instruct and Dream-7B-Instruct demonstrate that PVF reduces the Number of Function Evaluations (NFE) by up to 65% compared to confidence-based parallel decoding across benchmark datasets, unlocking superior efficiency without compromising accuracy.

Matrix-based optimizers have attracted growing interest for improving LLM training efficiency, with significant progress centered on orthogonalization/whitening based methods. While yielding substantial performance gains, a fundamental question arises: can we develop new paradigms beyond orthogonalization, pushing the efficiency frontier further? We present Adaptively Rotated Optimization (ARO, a new matrix optimization framework that treats gradient rotation as a first class design principle. ARO accelerates LLM training by performing normed steepest descent in a rotated coordinate system, where the rotation is determined by a novel norm-informed policy. This perspective yields update rules that go beyond existing orthogonalization and whitening optimizers, improving sample efficiency in practice. To make comparisons reliable, we propose a rigorously controlled benchmarking protocol that reduces confounding and bias. Under this protocol, ARO consistently outperforms AdamW (by 1.3 sim1.35times) and orthogonalization methods (by 1.1sim1.15times) in LLM pretraining at up to 8B activated parameters, and up to 8times overtrain budget, without evidence of diminishing returns. Finally, we discuss how ARO can be reformulated as a symmetry-aware optimizer grounded in rotational symmetries of residual streams, motivating advanced designs that enable computationally efficient exploitation of cross-layer/cross module couplings.

While visual data augmentation remains a cornerstone for training robust vision models, it has received limited attention in visual language models (VLMs), which predominantly rely on large-scale real data acquisition or synthetic diversity. Consequently, they may struggle with basic perception tasks that conventional models handle reliably. Given the substantial cost of pre-training and fine-tuning VLMs, continue training on augmented data yields limited and diminishing returns. In this paper, we present Visual Augmentation Chain-of-Thought (VACoT), a framework that dynamically invokes image augmentations during model inference. By incorporating post-hoc transformations such as denoising, VACoT substantially improves robustness on challenging and out-of-distribution inputs, especially in OCR-related adversarial scenarios. Distinct from prior approaches limited to local cropping, VACoT integrates a structured collection of general visual augmentations, broadening the query image views while reducing training complexity and computational overhead with efficient agentic reinforcement learning. We propose a conditional reward scheme that encourages necessary augmentation while penalizing verbose responses, ensuring concise and effective reasoning in perception tasks. We demonstrate the superiority of VACoT with extensive experiments on 13 perception benchmarks and further introduce AdvOCR to highlight the generalization benefits of post-hoc visual augmentations in adversarial scenarios.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) have exhibited the capacity of enhancing reasoning performance via internal test-time scaling. Building upon this, a promising direction is to further scale test-time compute to unlock even greater reasoning capabilities. However, as we push these scaling boundaries, systematically understanding the practical limits and achieving optimal resource allocation becomes a critical challenge. In this paper, we investigate the scaling Pareto of test-time scaling and introduce the Test-Time Scaling Performance Model (TTSPM). We theoretically analyze two fundamental paradigms for such extended scaling, parallel scaling and sequential scaling, from a probabilistic modeling perspective. Our primary contribution is the derivation of the saturation point on the scaling budget for both strategies, identifying thresholds beyond which additional computation yields diminishing returns. Remarkably, despite their distinct mechanisms, both paradigms converge to a unified mathematical structure in their upper bounds. We empirically validate our theoretical findings on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including AIME, MATH-500, and GPQA, demonstrating the practical utility of these bounds for test-time resource allocation. We hope that this work provides insights into the cost-benefit trade-offs of test-time scaling, guiding the development of more resource-efficient inference strategies for large reasoning models.

Deepfakes have become a universal and rapidly intensifying concern of generative AI across various media types such as images, audio, and videos. Among these, audio deepfakes have been of particular concern due to the ease of high-quality voice synthesis and distribution via platforms such as social media and robocalls. Consequently, detecting audio deepfakes plays a critical role in combating the growing misuse of AI-synthesized speech. However, real-world scenarios often introduce various audio corruptions, such as noise, modification, and compression, that may significantly impact detection performance. This work systematically evaluates the robustness of 10 audio deepfake detection models against 16 common corruptions, categorized into noise perturbation, audio modification, and compression. Using both traditional deep learning models and state-of-the-art foundation models, we make four unique observations. First, our findings show that while most models demonstrate strong robustness to noise, they are notably more vulnerable to modifications and compression, especially when neural codecs are applied. Second, speech foundation models generally outperform traditional models across most scenarios, likely due to their self-supervised learning paradigm and large-scale pre-training. Third, our results show that increasing model size improves robustness, albeit with diminishing returns. Fourth, we demonstrate how targeted data augmentation during training can enhance model resilience to unseen perturbations. A case study on political speech deepfakes highlights the effectiveness of foundation models in achieving high accuracy under real-world conditions. These findings emphasize the importance of developing more robust detection frameworks to ensure reliability in practical deployment settings.

Inspired by the principle of deliberate practice in human learning, we propose Deliberate Practice for Synthetic Data Generation (DP), a novel framework that improves sample efficiency through dynamic synthetic data generation. Prior work has shown that scaling synthetic data is inherently challenging, as naively adding new data leads to diminishing returns. To address this, pruning has been identified as a key mechanism for improving scaling, enabling models to focus on the most informative synthetic samples. Rather than generating a large dataset and pruning it afterward, DP efficiently approximates the direct generation of informative samples. We theoretically show how training on challenging, informative examples improves scaling laws and empirically validate that DP achieves better scaling performance with significantly fewer training samples and iterations. On ImageNet-100, DP generates 3.4x fewer samples and requires six times fewer iterations, while on ImageNet-1k, it generates 8x fewer samples with a 30 percent reduction in iterations, all while achieving superior performance compared to prior work.

Training large-scale models under given resources requires careful design of parallelism strategies. In particular, the efficiency notion of critical batch size (CBS), concerning the compromise between time and compute, marks the threshold beyond which greater data parallelism leads to diminishing returns. To operationalize it, we propose a measure of CBS and pre-train a series of auto-regressive language models, ranging from 85 million to 1.2 billion parameters, on the C4 dataset. Through extensive hyper-parameter sweeps and careful control of factors such as batch size, momentum, and learning rate along with its scheduling, we systematically investigate the impact of scale on CBS. Then we fit scaling laws with respect to model and data sizes to decouple their effects. Overall, our results demonstrate that CBS scales primarily with data size rather than model size, a finding we justify theoretically through the analysis of infinite-width limits of neural networks and infinite-dimensional least squares regression. Of independent interest, we highlight the importance of common hyper-parameter choices and strategies for studying large-scale pre-training beyond fixed training durations.

A key puzzle in search, ads, and recommendation is that the ranking model can only utilize a small portion of the vastly available user interaction data. As a result, increasing data volume, model size, or computation FLOPs will quickly suffer from diminishing returns. We examined this problem and found that one of the root causes may lie in the so-called ``item-centric'' formulation, which has an unbounded vocabulary and thus uncontrolled model complexity. To mitigate quality saturation, we introduce an alternative formulation named ``user-centric ranking'', which is based on a transposed view of the dyadic user-item interaction data. We show that this formulation has a promising scaling property, enabling us to train better-converged models on substantially larger data sets.

Branch prediction is arguably one of the most important speculative mechanisms within a high-performance processor architecture. A common approach to improve branch prediction accuracy is to employ lengthy history records of previously seen branch directions to capture distant correlations between branches. The larger the history, the richer the information that the predictor can exploit for discovering predictive patterns. However, without appropriate filtering, such an approach may also heavily disorganize the predictor's internal mechanisms, leading to diminishing returns. This paper studies a fundamental control-flow property: the sparsity in the correlation between branches and recent history. First, we show that sparse branch correlations exist in standard applications and, more importantly, such correlations can be computed efficiently using sparse modeling methods. Second, we introduce a sparsity-aware branch prediction mechanism that can compactly encode and store sparse models to unlock essential performance opportunities. We evaluated our approach for various design parameters demonstrating MPKI improvements of up to 42% (2.3% on average) with 2KB of additional storage overhead. Our circuit-level evaluation of the design showed that it can operate within accepted branch prediction latencies, and under reasonable power and area limitations.

In most countries, basic research is supported by research councils that select, after peer review, the individuals or teams that are to receive funding. Unfortunately, the number of grants these research councils can allocate is not infinite and, in most cases, a minority of the researchers receive the majority of the funds. However, evidence as to whether this is an optimal way of distributing available funds is mixed. The purpose of this study is to measure the relation between the amount of funding provided to 12,720 researchers in Quebec over a fifteen year period (1998-2012) and their scientific output and impact from 2000 to 2013. Our results show that both in terms of the quantity of papers produced and of their scientific impact, the concentration of research funding in the hands of a so-called "elite" of researchers generally produces diminishing marginal returns. Also, we find that the most funded researchers do not stand out in terms of output and scientific impact.

Human listeners readily adjust to unfamiliar speakers and language varieties through exposure, but do these adaptation benefits extend to state-of-the-art spoken language models? We introduce a scalable framework that allows for in-context learning (ICL) in Phi-4 Multimodal using interleaved task prompts and audio-text pairs, and find that as few as 12 example utterances (~50 seconds) at inference time reduce word error rates by a relative 19.7% (1.2 pp.) on average across diverse English corpora. These improvements are most pronounced in low-resource varieties, when the context and target speaker match, and when more examples are provided--though scaling our procedure yields diminishing marginal returns to context length. Overall, we find that our novel ICL adaptation scheme (1) reveals a similar performance profile to human listeners, and (2) demonstrates consistent improvements to automatic speech recognition (ASR) robustness across diverse speakers and language backgrounds. While adaptation succeeds broadly, significant gaps remain for certain varieties, revealing where current models still fall short of human flexibility. We release our prompts and code on GitHub.

Large language models (LLMs) are commonly trained on multi-domain datasets, where domain sampling strategies significantly impact model performance due to varying domain importance across downstream tasks. Existing approaches for optimizing domain-level sampling strategies struggle with maintaining intra-domain consistency and accurately measuring domain impact. In this paper, we present Domain Impact-aware Data Sampling (DIDS). To ensure intra-domain consistency, a gradient clustering algorithm is proposed to group training data based on their learning effects, where a proxy language model and dimensionality reduction are employed to reduce computational overhead. To accurately measure domain impact, we develop a Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) guided metric that quantifies how domain-specific parameter updates affect the model's output distributions on downstream tasks, with theoretical guarantees. Furthermore, to determine optimal sampling ratios, DIDS combines both the FIM-guided domain impact assessment and loss learning trajectories that indicate domain-specific potential, while accounting for diminishing marginal returns. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DIDS achieves 3.4% higher average performance while maintaining comparable training efficiency.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Agents, language model (LM)-based systems that are capable of reasoning, planning, and acting are becoming the dominant paradigm for real-world AI applications. Despite this widespread adoption, the principles that determine their performance remain underexplored, leaving practitioners to rely on heuristics rather than principled design choices. We address this gap by deriving quantitative scaling principles for agent systems. We evaluate this across four diverse benchmarks: Finance-Agent, BrowseComp-Plus, PlanCraft, and Workbench. Using five canonical architectures (Single, Independent, Centralized, Decentralized, Hybrid) instantiated across three LLM families, we perform a controlled evaluation spanning 180 configurations with standardized tools and token budgets. We derive a predictive model using empirical coordination metrics, including efficiency, overhead, error amplification, and redundancy, that achieves cross-validated R^2=0.513. We identify three dominant effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead. (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns (beta=-0.408, p<0.001) once single-agent baselines exceed ~45%. (3) topology-dependent error amplification: independent agents amplify errors 17.2x through unchecked propagation, while centralized coordination contains this to 4.4x. Centralized coordination improves performance by 80.9% on parallelizable tasks like financial reasoning, while decentralized coordination excels on dynamic web navigation (+9.2% vs. +0.2%). Yet for sequential reasoning tasks, all multi-agent variants degraded performance by 39-70%. The framework predicts the optimal coordination strategy for 87% of held-out configurations, providing a predictive principle of agentic scaling based on measurable task properties.

Large Language Models deployed as question answering tools require robust calibration to avoid overconfidence. We systematically evaluate how reasoning capabilities and budget affect confidence assessment accuracy, using the ClimateX dataset (Lacombe et al., 2023) and expanding it to human and planetary health. Our key finding challenges the "test-time scaling" paradigm: while recent reasoning LLMs achieve 48.7% accuracy in assessing expert confidence, increasing reasoning budgets consistently impairs rather than improves calibration. Extended reasoning leads to systematic overconfidence that worsens with longer thinking budgets, producing diminishing and negative returns beyond modest computational investments. Conversely, search-augmented generation dramatically outperforms pure reasoning, achieving 89.3% accuracy by retrieving relevant evidence. Our results suggest that information access, rather than reasoning depth or inference budget, may be the critical bottleneck for improved confidence calibration of knowledge-intensive tasks.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) grounds large language model outputs in external evidence, but remains challenged on multi-hop question answering that requires long reasoning. Recent works scale RAG at inference time along two complementary dimensions: sequential depth for iterative refinement and parallel width for coverage expansion. However, naive scaling causes context contamination and scaling inefficiency, leading to diminishing or negative returns despite increased computation. To address these limitations, we propose SPARC-RAG, a multi-agent framework that coordinates sequential and parallel inference-time scaling under a unified context management mechanism. SPARC-RAG employs specialized agents that maintain a shared global context and provide explicit control over the scaling process. It generates targeted, complementary sub-queries for each branch to enable diverse parallel exploration, and explicitly regulates exiting decisions based on answer correctness and evidence grounding. To optimize scaling behavior, we further introduce a lightweight fine-tuning method with process-level verifiable preferences, which improves the efficiency of sequential scaling and effectiveness of parallel scaling. Across single- and multi-hop QA benchmarks, SPARC-RAG consistently outperforms previous RAG baselines, yielding an average +6.2 F1 improvement under lower inference cost.

Mixture-of-Expert (MoE) based large language models (LLMs), such as the recent Mixtral and DeepSeek-MoE, have shown great promise in scaling model size without suffering from the quadratic growth of training cost of dense transformers. Like dense models, training MoEs requires answering the same question: given a training budget, what is the optimal allocation on the model size and number of tokens? We study the scaling law of MoE-based LLMs regarding the relations between the model performance, model size, dataset size, and the expert degree. Echoing previous research studying MoE in different contexts, we observe the diminishing return of increasing the number of experts, but this seems to suggest we should scale the number of experts until saturation, as the training cost would remain constant, which is problematic during inference time. We propose to amend the scaling law of MoE by introducing inference efficiency as another metric besides the validation loss. We find that MoEs with a few (4/8) experts are the most serving efficient solution under the same performance, but costs 2.5-3.5x more in training. On the other hand, training a (16/32) expert MoE much smaller (70-85%) than the loss-optimal solution, but with a larger training dataset is a promising setup under a training budget.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to scientific research, yet prevailing science benchmarks probe decontextualized knowledge and overlook the iterative reasoning, hypothesis generation, and observation interpretation that drive scientific discovery. We introduce a scenario-grounded benchmark that evaluates LLMs across biology, chemistry, materials, and physics, where domain experts define research projects of genuine interest and decompose them into modular research scenarios from which vetted questions are sampled. The framework assesses models at two levels: (i) question-level accuracy on scenario-tied items and (ii) project-level performance, where models must propose testable hypotheses, design simulations or experiments, and interpret results. Applying this two-phase scientific discovery evaluation (SDE) framework to state-of-the-art LLMs reveals a consistent performance gap relative to general science benchmarks, diminishing return of scaling up model sizes and reasoning, and systematic weaknesses shared across top-tier models from different providers. Large performance variation in research scenarios leads to changing choices of the best performing model on scientific discovery projects evaluated, suggesting all current LLMs are distant to general scientific "superintelligence". Nevertheless, LLMs already demonstrate promise in a great variety of scientific discovery projects, including cases where constituent scenario scores are low, highlighting the role of guided exploration and serendipity in discovery. This SDE framework offers a reproducible benchmark for discovery-relevant evaluation of LLMs and charts practical paths to advance their development toward scientific discovery.

We study the black-box attacks on graph neural networks (GNNs) under a novel and realistic constraint: attackers have access to only a subset of nodes in the network, and they can only attack a small number of them. A node selection step is essential under this setup. We demonstrate that the structural inductive biases of GNN models can be an effective source for this type of attacks. Specifically, by exploiting the connection between the backward propagation of GNNs and random walks, we show that the common gradient-based white-box attacks can be generalized to the black-box setting via the connection between the gradient and an importance score similar to PageRank. In practice, we find attacks based on this importance score indeed increase the classification loss by a large margin, but they fail to significantly increase the mis-classification rate. Our theoretical and empirical analyses suggest that there is a discrepancy between the loss and mis-classification rate, as the latter presents a diminishing-return pattern when the number of attacked nodes increases. Therefore, we propose a greedy procedure to correct the importance score that takes into account of the diminishing-return pattern. Experimental results show that the proposed procedure can significantly increase the mis-classification rate of common GNNs on real-world data without access to model parameters nor predictions.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.